Merger Arbitrage Spread Performance – 25 November 2018

This is the Merger Arbitrage Spread Performance November 25, 2018 analysis. A review of the top 20 tradeable cash based merger arb spreads in the USA for the week 19th – 23rd November. Included in this week’s report are the winners, losers and overall performance of the portfolio. This report is based upon the Merger Arbitrage Limited top 20 (T20) list of cash merger arbitrage spreads available as at 18th November.

We sure hope you all enjoyed thanksgiving this past week. This inevitably led to a reasonably quite week in the merger arbitrage space although the broader market still managed to maintain its volatile streak.

We’ve added some additional information this week

  • The standard deviation of returns for the top 20 in addition to the average return. This gives our readers a better idea as to the movement within the portfolio.
  • The change in the VIX (relative percent) is also included as a complimentary figure to the performance of the SPY

Winners

This week’s best performer was RCII gaining 0.97%. This deal is expected to close by the end of the year and is still offering a 2.74% spreadThe second best performer was RHT which was up 0.95%. A rise most of which was attributed to a sharp gain on Friday morning due to upcoming expected earnings being higher than originally forcast. This deal is still a long way from completing thus significantly reducing the annualised return. APTI was up 0.77% on little news while AHL was up 0.63% on an announcement regarding earnings figures for the next quarter. Other gainers were ATHN which released some additional information regarding the takeover by Veritas Capital via the filing of a DEF14A and improved 0.58%DNB was up 0.50% on news that Black Knight is to join the group of investors looking to buy the company.

Losers

This week’s worst performer is VVC down  0.40%.  The second largest loser this week is AFSI which was down 0.36%. Neither of these stock had any significant news to report and are considered to have been caught in the broader market slide. ECYT was down 0.30% following a unsubstansiated rumour that the company was itself looking to launch a takeover bid.
 

Portfolio Performance

Winners outpaced losers this week with 14 winners to 5 losers and 1 non-mover. This positive performance is refleceted in the average gain of 0.25%. The standard deviation of returns for the T20 was 0.40% impliying a 71.25% chance of a positive return, which is in line with the portfolio observation. The MNA ETF returned a negative performance of 0.41% for the week due to its insufficient short exposure whilst the SPY which continues its volatile run posted a significant loss of 3.45% for the shortened holiday week.
MNA SPY VIX Returns Table 20181123

MNA SPY VIX Returns Table 20181123
*We have not included MRGR ETF for liquidity reasons. Click the table to read our Merger Arbitrage ETF Review and see a discussion of how liquidity and other factors affect the performance of these products.

And Finally…

The most recent list of the largest spreads is already available, and you can check out the rules for inclusion here. Our free merger arbitrage spread calculator is also available for FREE download. This can be used to value the spread of any stock-for-stock deals you may be interested in.

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