Merger Arbitrage Spread Performance – 23 December 2018

This is the analysis of Merger Arbitrage Spread Performance December 23, 2018. A review of the top 20 tradeable cash based merger arb spreads in the USA for the week 17th – 21st December. Included in this week’s report are the winners, losers and overall performance of the portfolio. This report is based upon the Merger Arbitrage Limited top 20 (T20) list of cash merger arbitrage spreads available as at 16th December.

We’ve added some additional information recently

  • The standard deviation of returns for the top 20 in addition to the average return. This gives our readers a better idea as to the movement within the portfolio.
  • The change in the VIX (relative percent) is also included as a complimentary figure to the performance of the SPY

Winners

This week’s best performer was NxStage Medical, Inc. (NXTM) gaining 1.23%, a rebound from last weeks worst performer status. Its deal to be acquired by Fresenius Medical Care has had a rollercoaster ride of late and provides an opportunity for actively trading the spread for those able to stay abreast of market developments. Belmond (BEL) also performed strongly, up 1.18%. At one point during the week this stock was 1% above its offer price from Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey as traders speculated on the possibility of a higher bid. Electro Scientific Industries (ESIO) was up 0.67% after Mr. John T C Lee (president of MKS, the acquirer) reiterated the anticipated closure of the deal in Q1 2019 and the appointment of a new vice president for ESI. Naturally, arbs looking for a “sure thing” won’t find many better than this but the spread is already priced accordingly. Finally, Integrated Device Technology Inc (IDTI) was up 0.54%, which on Wednesday received clearance from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People’s Republic of China (“SAMR”), for its merger with Renesas Electronics Corp. The completion of this important step removes a potential significant roadblock in merger completion and has encouraged a large increase in the number of arbs participating in the deal. With the spread still offering 1.5% this looks to be an attractive situation.

Losers

This week’s worst performer is Rent-A-Center Inc (RCII) down 10.01%. This loss was caused by RCII decision to terminate the deal with Vintage Capital Management. However, immediate broker upgrades following this announcement have pushed the stock ABOVE the offer price by the end of the week despite no longer being considered a merger arb play. Another significant loser (again) this past week was Essendant Inc (ESND), down 3.98% as it once again extended its tender offer from Staples for another week. Also significantly in the red was Arris International (ARRS) down 3.94% having announced a shareholder meeting to take place on the 1st February 2019 to vote on the proposed deal from Commscope Holding. Avista Corp (AVA) was also down 2.53%, following its filing of a request (along with acquirer HydroOne) for reconsideration of denying state approval of the deal. This deal, whilst technically remaining live is now a highly speculative situation and is best traded by those with specialist knowledge of the legal situation. Others losers of note were Athenahealth (ATHN) down 1.82%, (acquirer Veritas Capital & Evergreen Coast Capital), Redhat (RHT) (acquirer International Business Machines) down 1.78%, and Travelport (TVPT) down 1.53% (acquirer Siris Capital Group, LLC and Evergreen Coast Capital).
 

Portfolio Performance

Losers thoroughly outpaced winners this week by 15 to 5. The performance of the overall portfolio reflects this score but needs further explanation. During the week, the collapse of the RCII deal should require an immediate sale of the stock as per the portfolio composition rules. Using the closing price that same day the portfolio return is a very negative 1.39%. However, for those who continued to hold the stock until the end of the week the overall portfolio performance is negative 0.75%. There were no dividends paid during the week from the T20 list. The standard deviation of returns for the T20 was 1.67%. This is an out sized movement reflecting the volatility in the market and specific deal situations. The MNA ETF returned a negative performance of 1.32%, continuing a 5 week losing streak. The S&P 500 ETFSPY which suffered a large sell-off on Friday, but also went ex-div to the tune of $1.435, endured yet another losing week and posted a huge loss of 7.08%. The VIX accordingly increased dramatically by 39.20%.
MNA SPY VIX Returns Table 20181221

MNA SPY VIX Returns Table 20181221
*We have not included MRGR ETF for liquidity reasons. Click the table to read our Merger Arbitrage ETF Review and see a discussion of how liquidity and other factors affect the performance of these products.

And Finally…

The most recent list of the largest spreads is already available, and you can check out the rules for inclusion here. Our free merger arbitrage spread calculator is also available for FREE download. This can be used to value the spread of any stock-for-stock deals you may be interested in.

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