Merger Arbitrage Spread Performance – 16 December 2018

This is the Merger Arbitrage Spread Performance December 16, 2018 analysis. A review of the top 20 tradeable cash based merger arb spreads in the USA for the week 10th – 14th December. Included in this week’s report are the winners, losers and overall performance of the portfolio. This report is based upon the Merger Arbitrage Limited top 20 (T20) list of cash merger arbitrage spreads available as at 9th December.

We’ve recently added some additional information

  • The standard deviation of returns for the top 20 in addition to the average return. This gives our readers a better idea as to the movement within the portfolio.
  • The change in the VIX (relative percent) is also included as a complimentary figure to the performance of the SPY

Winners

This week’s best performer was Avista Corp (AVA) gaining 2.53%. This rebound follows the announcement last week of the failure to be given the merger go-ahead by Washington State regulators. Avista and Hydro One have vowed to challenge that ruling. Arb’s are speculating on the limited downside could provide an attractive bet were the challenge to be successful. XO Group Inc. (XOXO) also performed strongly, up 0.92% as it’s deal near its completion. There is only $0.02 left in this spread. The other strong performer of note was Tribune Media Company (TRCO) 0.82% for the week. This follows an upgrade to Nextstar media (TRCO’s suitor) during the week.

Losers

This week’s worst performer is NxStage Medical, Inc. (NXTM) down 1.56%. This loss was caused by a lack of news and relates to the overall market performance and the ongoing delays to deal completion. The other significant loser this past week was Essendant Inc (ESND), down 0.63% as it once again extends its tender offer for another week. Also in the red were Tesaro, Inc. (TSRO) down 0.35%Redhat (RHT), down 0.34% and Athenahealth (ATHN) down 0.33%.
 

Portfolio Performance

Winners marginally lost to losers this week by a margin of 9 to 11. The performance of the overall portfolio however was just positive, coming in at a gain of 0.03%, due mainly to a marginal recovery in AVA. There were no dividends paid during the week from the constituents of last weeks list. The standard deviation of returns for the T20 was 0.77%. This is a return to normailty following last weeks drop in AVA distorting the figure. It is expected this situation will have a large effect on portfolio performance until the situation is determined one way or the other. The MNA ETF returned a negative performance of 0.19%, continuing a 4 week losing streak. The S&P 500 ETFSPY which suffered a large sell-off on Friday, endured yet another losing week and posted a loss of 1.18%, however, the VIX decreased (in relative terms) by 6.89%.
MNA SPY VIX Returns Table 20181214

MNA SPY VIX Returns Table 20181214
*We have not included MRGR ETF for liquidity reasons. Click the table to read our Merger Arbitrage ETF Review and see a discussion of how liquidity and other factors affect the performance of these products.

And Finally…

The most recent list of the largest spreads is already available, and you can check out the rules for inclusion here. Our free merger arbitrage spread calculator is also available for FREE download. This can be used to value the spread of any stock-for-stock deals you may be interested in.

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