Flowback

Flowback
Flowback

Flowback is the subsequent sale of the acquirer stock by an investor following the successful completion of a stock swap merger. Occasionally, institutional investors may not be permitted to hold foreign stocks as per their investment mandate. They may be restricted to holding only domestic stocks. In a successful takeover, should an acquirer be foreign domiciled and finance the deal with its own stock, it will result in the subsequent ownership of a foreign stock, thus breaching the investment rules. The sale of this position is known as “Flowback” as the stock “flows” back to the country of the bidder.

Theoretically, this situation can occur to any investor in mergers & acquisitions who does not wish to own foreign stocks for whatever reason and chooses to sell upon taking ownership of the acquirer shares. However, in practice the owner of the target stock often decides to sell the target stock in the domestic market immediately prior to the consummation of the deal. This avoids the Flowback situation entirely whilst increasing the merger arbitrage spread. Another way the situation can be avoided or reduced is if the acquirer increases the cash component offered in the deal.

Should the acquirer stock begin trading on a national stock exchange where the current target shareholder is domiciled, possibly in the form of American Depositary Receipts (ADR’s) or an equivalent instrument, it is possible the shareholder may continue to own the acquirer stock within its own investment guidelines.

The Effects of Flowback

The majority of flowback instances are due to index tracking funds such as Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s). These funds invest and track the performance of an underlying index such as the S&P 500 index in the United States or the FTSE-100 Index in the United Kingdom. Passive investment strategies such as these have significant funds under management. Owning acquirer stock via a merger or acquisition is not feasible for these funds. Therefore, they are forced to liquidate the position and rebalance their holdings to reflect the new index entrant. Immediately following the closing of the deal the flowback liquidation process begins as sell orders enter the market in the acquirer stock. This causes a temporary liquidity imbalance in the acquirer stock which depresses the share price. The duration of this event depends of the quantity of stock issued in the deal and the level of aggressiveness in the selling. Depending on the prevailing broader market volatility at the time, it may be extremely difficult to observe this additional selling pressure in practice. A key indicator is the volume of shares traded RELATIVE to overall market activity BEFORE and AFTER the deal is consummated.

A Practical Example

There are many examples of foreign takeovers using their own stock. In 2003, General Electric (GE) launched a £5.7bn share offer for Amersham, the UK healthcare company. Merger Arbitrageurs were able to buy Amerhsam stock with a merger spread wider than would be expected as investors sold their positions to avoid the issue of flowback. Once the deal was completed however, the effects of flowback, if any, were difficult to monitor because of the relative size of GE. However, that would not have stopped market participants monitoring the stock for a period of time.
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